Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Yep, Johan is going to be a Met.

We told you a week ago that Johan Santana was going to be a Met and now its pretty much official.

Until a trade completely blows up in their faces, we are compelled to trust the Twins, but it’s tough to lose an ace like Johan. That being said, the Twins have done a pretty good job of evaluating other team’s talent over the last few years and if they knew they weren’t going to be able to sign Johan Santana to a long-term deal (they weren’t) they had to get the best set of prospects they could in return for him.

So what do we know about the players the Twins will be receiving?

Depending on whom you talk to or what you read, the Mets just traded their #1 prospect in Carlos Gomez, their #3 prospect in Phillip Humber, and their 5th and 6th best prospects in Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra, respectively. That’s a lot of talent – albeit a lot of long-term talent now in the Twins system.

Gomez is faster than Mets SS Jose Reyes, has great bat speed and is a great defender. He probably starts the year in AAA Rochester but once his bat comes to life, he will be a legit lead off hitter. He's the key to this deal and if he doesn't develop, the whole thing falls apart for the Twins. As soon as September 2008, he needs to be playing full-time in centerfield. If he progresses like he is supposed to, the Twins will have a fantastic defensive outfield with cannons (Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer) at the corners and ridiculous speed in center.

If you are a pessimist (there will be a lot of those coming out of the woodwork in the coming days) the truly scary thing about Gomez is the fact that he is a .273 career hitter with a .329 OBP, and he had a huge 3:1 K:BB ratio in the minors. Those numbers need to improve in a hurry if he will be the lead-off, spark plug type hitter the Twins so desperately need. To make an even stronger case for the "the Twins got hosed crowd" he hit .232 with the Mets last year over the span of 58 games.

Guerra is 18 years old, but has put on 4 inches and about 30 pounds over the last year, so he's still maturing. He picked up an extra 4-5 MPH on his fastball with the added size and his change-up is apparently quite good. He had a 4.01 ERA last year in high A ball and he was only 17-years-old. He's another key to the deal and could be a top to middle rotation guy in a few years.

Mulvey and Humber are what they are - good pitching prospects who had success in college but both of them are questions marks. Their future in the big leagues depends on their ability to locate their good, but not great stuff. Both could be solid back end of the rotation guys or they could be the next Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse. Even that might be okay at this point.

For the record, Joe Nathan will be the next Twins pitcher out the door, probably as soon as next week, but most definitely by the time the trading deadline rolls around this summer. Even with Johan Santana, the Twins probably weren’t going to compete in their division this season, so playing some kids and getting Francisco Liriano healthy will be the battle cry this year.

We still can’t wait for the season to get here.

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